What recent results, training trends, and an Australian lens suggest about a sport in transition
As I write this, two recent events stand out: the Valencia 10km road race and the 2026 World Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee. In Valencia, Sweden’s Andreas Almgren won in a European record of 26:44. In Tallahassee, Australia claimed gold in the mixed 4 × 2km relay. Taken on their own, these are simply eye‑catching results. Taken together with broader trends from the past couple of seasons, they invite a larger question: is the long‑standing East African dominance in distance running beginning to soften, at least in certain events?
A changing medal table
Recent global championships suggest a more geographically diverse group of winners on the men’s side of distance events. At the 2025 World Championships, gold medals went to Jimmy Gressier of France in the 10,000m, Cole Hocker of the United States in the 5,000m, Isaac Nader of Portugal in the 1,500m, and George Beamish of New Zealand in the 3,000m steeplechase. The men’s marathon was won by Alphonce Simbu of Tanzania, with Germany’s Amanal Petros finishing second. Layered on top of this are the sustained successes of Jakob Ingebrigtsen across 1,500m and 5,000m, Josh Kerr’s world‑championship gold, and recent wins by athletes such as Jake Wightman and Hocker.
Viewed historically, this spread of nations would have been unusual. For decades, global distance running—particularly on the track—has been dominated by Kenya, Ethiopia, and their East African neighbours.
It is important to acknowledge that this pattern does not extend cleanly across all categories. On the women’s side, East African dominance remains overwhelming. At the 2025 World Championships, Kenya won every gold medal across the women’s middle‑ and long‑distance events, from the 800m through to the marathon. Ethiopia and Uganda continued to feature prominently on the podium, but the top step was uniformly Kenyan. In cross country, Tallahassee largely followed the traditional script: Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda swept the senior and under‑20 races, with Australia’s relay win a notable but isolated exception.
Where have the East Africans gone?
One possible explanation is not a decline in East African talent, but a redistribution of where that talent appears. Road racing now offers substantial prize money and appearance fees, often exceeding what is available at track championships. It is plausible that many elite East African athletes are prioritising the road circuit over championship‑style track racing, particularly outside Olympic years. If that is the case, the apparent opening at the top of certain track events may reflect incentives rather than a genuine erosion of dominance.
Almgren’s Valencia performance arguably points in a different direction. Rather than illustrating East African athletes concentrating their dominance on the roads, it may be an example of the rest of the world catching up to them even there. Valencia is traditionally a race that attracts deep East African fields, yet Almgren was able to win decisively and set a European record in the process.
His 26:44 stands among the fastest 10km road performances in history, a level reached by only a handful of men in history. Those include marks by Rhonex Kipruto, Yomif Kejelcha, and Berihu Aregawi. Kipruto’s performances have since been complicated by suspension, which further narrows the list of comparable results. Seen in this light, Almgren’s run is less about an absence of African competition and more about evidence that non–East African athletes are now capable of matching historically elite standards on the road as well as on the track.
Training methods in the open
My second observation is shaped by an obvious bias: we see what athletes choose to share, and what social‑media algorithms decide to show us. Even so, the training that is visible suggests a shift in how some of the world’s best are preparing.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen has become synonymous with the so‑called Norwegian method, particularly the use of double‑threshold days. While these ideas likely existed long before they gained public attention, they are now widely discussed and increasingly emulated.
Just before Valencia, Almgren shared a workout of 10 × 1 km, with repetitions in the 2:30s and a final rep in 2:28. That kind of session—at least publicly documented—is striking. It may well be that similar work has long been happening in the Rift Valley without cameras or captions, but its visibility among European and Western athletes feels new.
Other elites are similarly open. Clayton Young’s training provides insight into the broader American marathon system that includes Conner Mantz. Alex Yee has documented his progression toward the marathon, culminating in a recent performance that stands as the second‑fastest ever by a British athlete, behind only Mo Farah. And there are numerous other examples. This visibility may itself be part of why the gap appears to be narrowing.
An Australian lens
This leads to a more specific concern close to home. If the gap between East African athletes and the rest of the world is genuinely narrowing in some men’s distance events, my worry is that Australia risks falling behind that trend in certain pockets of our system.
During a recent Australian altitude camp, one large training group reportedly completed their traditional 8 × 1km session at roughly 2:50–2:55 pace. In isolation, that information means very little; training context matters enormously. Still, when contrasted with the sessions being shared by the world’s very best, it left me wondering if we are evolving quickly enough to match the accelerating global standard. You're not going to keep up with the Almgrens of the world if you are running 2:55s in your sessions.
What is striking is that many of Australia’s most successful distance runners appear to thrive either outside large, centralised groups, or within groups that are clearly structured around them rather than the other way around. Athletes such as Jessica Hull, Seth O’Donnell, Ed Marks, Lauren Ryan, Jessica Stenson, and Leanne Pompeani have achieved standout results through highly individualised approaches. In these cases, the group exists to support the athlete, not to average out differences in ability or ambition.
If distance running globally is entering a phase where innovation, transparency, and precision are increasingly decisive, then Australia’s challenge may not be talent, but alignment. The concern is not that Australia is failing to close the gap to East Africa, but that it may be slower to adapt while others are finding new ways to do so.
Is the gap closing?
None of this is an argument that East African dominance has disappeared. In cross country and women’s distance events, it remains as strong as ever. But on the men’s track—and increasingly on the roads—the picture looks more complicated.
The gap may not be closing everywhere, or for the same reasons. Incentives, training transparency, and methodological experimentation all appear to be in flux. What seems clear is that distance running is no longer as geographically predictable as it once was. If the defining story of modern distance running is not the decline of East Africa, but the speed at which others are learning to compete, then Australia’s real challenge may be urgency. The question is not whether the gap can be closed, but whether we are moving quickly enough to be among those who are closing it.
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